All resolved pollsResolved · 5 SEPT 2026Upset
Newcastle United2
BournemouthCrowd had 20%2
The verdict

The crowd backed Newcastle. Tie won 2–2.

Newcastle United vs Bournemouth: how does it end? 645 verified humans answered. Crowd piled into Newcastle, market held back. The draw left both sides cold.

71%Crowd on Newcastle
44%Market price
+27Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

645 verified humans · one human, one vote
NewcastleCrowd’s pick71%459 voters
Bournemouth20%126 voters
TieWhat happened9%60 voters
Tie won, so 9% of the crowd called it — a plurality of 71% did not. The market had Newcastle at 44%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
44%
71%
Crowd
+27 ppts

The crowd was more confident in Newcastle than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Crowd’s pick
71%459 voters
Newcastle

The dominant crowd vision: Newcastle controlling proceedings at home, turning home advantage into a winning result and justifying strong collective confidence.

Scenario 2
20%126 voters
Bournemouth

A minority crowd vision: Bournemouth causing an away upset, silencing St James' Park and defying the weight of opinion stacked against them.

Scenario 3Came true
9%60 voters
Tie

The crowd's least-held vision: a stalemate where neither side could separate themselves, honours shared and no winner to speak of.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology1.37
Brier score
1.37

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-1

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
60 of 645

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.