Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Santa Fe
Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Santa Fe 542 verified humans answered. Crowd underweighted Nacional and overweighted Santa Fe vs the market, Nacional won.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was less confident in Atlético Nacional than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.
What the crowd was thinking
The crowd's modal vision: Nacional controlling home ground and seeing off their visitors, the most common single picture painted by the 542 voters.
A sizeable minority saw Santa Fe pulling off the away result, a share far exceeding what the market assigned, reflecting genuine crowd belief in the visitors.
A smaller but real slice of the crowd envisioned neither side breaking the deadlock, a scenario the market actually rated more likely than the crowd did.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.32
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.