The crowd backed CA Independiente. It finished in a draw.
Defensa y Justicia vs Independiente 542 verified humans answered. Crowd on Independiente well above market price. The result went the other way entirely.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was more confident in CA Independiente than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.
What the crowd was thinking
The crowd's dominant vision: Independiente in control, winning the match outright. A conviction held by a clear majority of the verified pool.
A sizeable minority saw Defensa y Justicia taking the points, aligning closer to the market's own lean but still a secondary view within the crowd.
The crowd's least-backed scenario: a stalemate, with neither side separated. A quiet corner of the joint map that the crowd largely set aside.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology1.03
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.