The crowd called it — Atlético Nacional won 2–1.
Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín 544 verified humans answered. Crowd ran well above market on Atlético Nacional, a gap that aligned with the outcome.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was more confident in Atlético Nacional than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.
What the crowd was thinking
A majority of the crowd saw Atlético Nacional taking the derby, forming the single largest and most compact bloc of conviction across the whole poll.
Roughly one in four voters envisioned Independiente Medellín turning the derby, a meaningful minority view that sat below the market's own implied probability for that outcome.
A small but distinct slice of the crowd pictured the derby ending level, the least favoured scenario among voters and also the closest to the market's own implied share.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.28
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.