ResolvedTournament-wide
World Cup: Golden Ball Winner
What the verified crowd expressed across four sentiment dimensions — momentum, respect, pressure and bias. 1033 World ID voters · resolved.
Voters1033World ID, complete ballots
Crowd's pickLionel Messinet +53 · 96% of the read
Poll closed01 Julvotes captured at close
Resolved20 Julthe event was played
The result
UpsetOther
- Crowd
- Lionel Messi · 96%
- Market
- Kylian Mbappé · 39%
Shown for context. This page reports what the crowd expressed before the event — not a scorecard.
Crowd vs market
How the crowd’s read compared to the betting market.
Biggest gap: Lionel Messi — the crowd is +66 ppt above the market price (30%).
EntityMarketCrowdGap
Lionel Messi30%96%+66
Kylian Mbappé39%1%-38
Michael Olise12%0%-12
Jude Bellingham5%0%-5
Vinícius Jr.4%0%-4
Lamine Yamal3%0%-3
Harry Kane3%0%-3
Cristiano Ronaldo3%0%-3
Erling Haaland2%0%-2
Ousmane Dembélé2%1%-1
Other0%0%0
Gap = the crowd's read minus the market's implied price, in percentage points. The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
THE CROWD'S COMBINED READ
A blend of the four sentiment dimensions below — the crowd's overall lean, from their votes only.
HOW THE CROWD CALLED IT — BY DIMENSION
One bar per entity — the mix of the crowd's read across the four dimensions. Green and blue (Momentum, Respect) are belief; amber and magenta (Pressure, Bias) are doubt. The more an entity's bar leans green/blue, the higher its net.
Momentum +Respect +Pressure −Bias −
Each segment is that dimension's share of the entity's four-dimension total. Exact per-dimension vote counts are in “Distribution by dimension” below. Dimension leaders — Momentum: Lionel Messi · Respect: Lionel Messi · Pressure: Cristiano Ronaldo · Bias: Cristiano Ronaldo
DISTRIBUTION BY DIMENSION
Momentum +buzz / form right now
Respect +impressed in the lead-up
Pressure −least trusted under pressure
Bias −most overrated by the public
MORE TOURNAMENT-WIDE CALLS
OutrightResolved
World Cup: Golden Ball Winner
The crowd most backs Lamine Yamal — 21% of the combined read.
See the crowd calls →
OutrightResolved
World Cup: Golden Glove Winner
The crowd most backs Emiliano Martínez — 64% of the combined read.
See the crowd calls →
OutrightResolved
Which continent will win the World Cup?
The crowd most backs South America (CONMEBOL) — 66% of the combined read.
See the crowd calls →
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
Get the calls worth watching