ResolvedTournament-wide
Which continent will win the World Cup?
What the verified crowd expressed across four sentiment dimensions — momentum, respect, pressure and bias. 1126 World ID voters · resolved.
Voters1126World ID, complete ballots
Crowd's pickSouth America (CONMEBOL)net +23 · 66% of the read
Poll closed01 Julvotes captured at close
Resolved19 Julthe event was played
The result
MarketEurope (UEFA)
- Crowd
- South America (CONMEBOL) · 66%
- Market
- Europe (UEFA) · 63%
Shown for context. This page reports what the crowd expressed before the event — not a scorecard.
Crowd vs market
How the crowd’s read compared to the betting market.
Biggest gap: Europe (UEFA) — the crowd is -39 ppt below the market price (63%).
EntityMarketCrowdGap
Europe (UEFA)63%24%-39
South America (CONMEBOL)30%66%+36
North America (CONCACAF)5%2%-3
Africa (CAF)4%7%+3
Asia (AFC)0%1%+1
Gap = the crowd's read minus the market's implied price, in percentage points. The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
The crowd's story
Crowd backs South America, but Europe carries the highest momentum and the heaviest doubt
Strong combined belief sat behind CONMEBOL, yet Europe's bias score was the tallest of any continent, signalling the crowd saw it as overrated. Europe won.
THE CROWD'S COMBINED READ
A blend of the four sentiment dimensions below — the crowd's overall lean, from their votes only.
HOW THE CROWD CALLED IT — BY DIMENSION
One bar per entity — the mix of the crowd's read across the four dimensions. Green and blue (Momentum, Respect) are belief; amber and magenta (Pressure, Bias) are doubt. The more an entity's bar leans green/blue, the higher its net.
Momentum +Respect +Pressure −Bias −
Each segment is that dimension's share of the entity's four-dimension total. Exact per-dimension vote counts are in “Distribution by dimension” below. Dimension leaders — Momentum: Europe (UEFA) · Respect: Europe (UEFA) · Pressure: Asia (AFC) · Bias: Europe (UEFA)
DISTRIBUTION BY DIMENSION
Momentum +buzz / form right now
Respect +impressed in the lead-up
Pressure −least trusted under pressure
Bias −most overrated by the public
MORE TOURNAMENT-WIDE CALLS
OutrightResolved
World Cup: Golden Ball Winner
The crowd most backs Lamine Yamal — 21% of the combined read.
See the crowd calls →
OutrightResolved
World Cup: Golden Ball Winner
The crowd most backs Lionel Messi — 96% of the combined read.
See the crowd calls →
OutrightResolved
World Cup: Golden Glove Winner
The crowd most backs Emiliano Martínez — 64% of the combined read.
See the crowd calls →
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
Get the calls worth watching