Poll closedTournament-wide
World Cup: Golden Ball Winner
What the verified crowd expressed across four sentiment dimensions — momentum, respect, pressure and bias. 611 World ID voters · poll closed.
Voters611World ID, complete ballots
Crowd's pickLamine Yamalnet +10 · 21% of the read
Poll closed11 Junvotes captured at close
⚡ The alpha windowPolling closed · event not yet resolved
Where the verified crowd diverges from the betting market — right now, before the event resolves.
Biggest gap: Lamine Yamal — the crowd is +9 ppt above the market price (12%).
EntityMarketCrowdGap
Lamine Yamal12%21%+9
Lionel Messi7%15%+8
Other0%6%+6
Harry Kane10%7%-3
Ousmane Dembélé4%7%+3
Vinícius Jr.6%3%-3
Vitinha5%7%+2
Kylian Mbappé14%13%-1
Bruno Fernandes8%7%-1
Michael Olise12%12%0
Pedri5%5%0
Gap = the crowd's read minus the market's implied price, in percentage points. The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is a sentiment signal, not a prediction or financial advice.
The crowd's story
Crowd backs Yamal for Golden Ball — low bias keeps him clear of the field
Yamal leads the combined read with the lightest overrated signal of the contenders; Messi draws the highest momentum and respect but heavy bias and pressure compress his net standing.
THE CROWD'S COMBINED READ
A blend of the four sentiment dimensions below — the crowd's overall lean, from their votes only.
HOW THE CROWD CALLED IT — BY DIMENSION
One bar per entity — the mix of the crowd's read across the four dimensions. Green and blue (Momentum, Respect) are belief; amber and magenta (Pressure, Bias) are doubt. The more an entity's bar leans green/blue, the higher its net.
Momentum +Respect +Pressure −Bias −
Each segment is that dimension's share of the entity's four-dimension total. Exact per-dimension vote counts are in “Distribution by dimension” below. Dimension leaders — Momentum: Lionel Messi · Respect: Lionel Messi · Pressure: Lionel Messi · Bias: Lionel Messi
DISTRIBUTION BY DIMENSION
Momentum +buzz / form right now
Respect +impressed in the lead-up
Pressure −least trusted under pressure
Bias −most overrated by the public
MORE TOURNAMENT-WIDE CALLS
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Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. Our signals are not to be considered financial advice.
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