What the verified crowd expressed across four sentiment dimensions — momentum, respect, pressure and bias. 611 World ID voters · resolved.
Voters611World ID, complete ballots
Crowd's pickLamine Yamalnet +10 · 21% of the read
Poll closed11 Junvotes captured at close
Resolved20 Julthe event was played
The result
Upset
Other
Crowd
Lamine Yamal · 21%
Market
Kylian Mbappé · 14%
Shown for context. This page reports what the crowd expressed before the event — not a scorecard.
Crowd vs market
How the crowd’s read compared to the betting market.
Biggest gap: Lamine Yamal — the crowd is +9 ppt above the market price (12%).
EntityMarketCrowdGap
Lamine Yamal12%21%+9
Lionel Messi7%15%+8
Other0%6%+6
Harry Kane10%7%-3
Ousmane Dembélé4%7%+3
Vinícius Jr.6%3%-3
Vitinha5%7%+2
Kylian Mbappé14%13%-1
Bruno Fernandes8%7%-1
Michael Olise12%12%0
Pedri5%5%0
Gap = the crowd's read minus the market's implied price, in percentage points. The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
The crowd's story
Crowd backs Yamal for Golden Ball — low bias keeps him clear of the field
Yamal leads the combined read with the lightest overrated signal of the contenders; Messi draws the highest momentum and respect but heavy bias and pressure compress his net standing.
THE CROWD'S COMBINED READshare of the crowd's read, per entity
Lamine Yamal21%
Lionel Messi15%
Kylian Mbappé13%
Michael Olise12%
Vitinha7%
Harry Kane7%
Ousmane Dembélé7%
Bruno Fernandes7%
Other6%
Pedri5%
Vinícius Jr.3%
A blend of the four sentiment dimensions below — the crowd's overall lean, from their votes only.
HOW THE CROWD CALLED IT — BY DIMENSIONMomentum + Respect − Pressure − Bias = Net
One bar per entity — the mix of the crowd's read across the four dimensions. Green and blue (Momentum, Respect) are belief; amber and magenta (Pressure, Bias) are doubt. The more an entity's bar leans green/blue, the higher its net.
Momentum +Respect +Pressure −Bias −
Lamine Yamal+10
Lionel Messi+6
Kylian Mbappé+5
Michael Olise+4
Harry Kane-1
Vitinha-1
Bruno Fernandes-2
Ousmane Dembélé-2
Other-3
Pedri-5
Vinícius Jr.-10
Each segment is that dimension's share of the entity's four-dimension total. Exact per-dimension vote counts are in “Distribution by dimension” below. Dimension leaders — Momentum: Lionel Messi · Respect: Lionel Messi · Pressure: Lionel Messi · Bias: Lionel Messi
DISTRIBUTION BY DIMENSIONhow the vote split on each question · share & votes