Poll closedTournament-wide
World Cup Winner
What the verified crowd expressed across four sentiment dimensions — momentum, respect, pressure and bias. 806 World ID voters · poll closed.
Voters806World ID, complete ballots
Crowd's pickSpainnet +18 · 43% of the read
Poll closed11 Junvotes captured at close
⚡ The alpha windowPolling closed · event not yet resolved
Where the verified crowd diverges from the betting market — right now, before the event resolves.
Biggest gap: Spain — the crowd is +26 ppt above the market price (17%).
EntityMarketCrowdGap
Spain17%43%+26
England11%2%-9
Other0%4%+4
Portugal11%9%-2
Netherlands5%3%-2
France16%17%+1
Argentina9%10%+1
Brazil9%8%-1
Germany5%4%-1
Gap = the crowd's read minus the market's implied price, in percentage points. The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is a sentiment signal, not a prediction or financial advice.
The crowd's story
Spain leads the crowd's World Cup read — momentum and respect drive a clear top pick
The verified crowd backs Spain with the strongest combined read, lifted by high momentum and respect, while Argentina carries the heaviest pressure and bias load among contenders.
THE CROWD'S COMBINED READ
A blend of the four sentiment dimensions below — the crowd's overall lean, from their votes only.
HOW THE CROWD CALLED IT — BY DIMENSION
One bar per entity — the mix of the crowd's read across the four dimensions. Green and blue (Momentum, Respect) are belief; amber and magenta (Pressure, Bias) are doubt. The more an entity's bar leans green/blue, the higher its net.
Momentum +Respect +Pressure −Bias −
Each segment is that dimension's share of the entity's four-dimension total. Exact per-dimension vote counts are in “Distribution by dimension” below. Dimension leaders — Momentum: Spain · Respect: Argentina · Pressure: Argentina · Bias: Argentina
DISTRIBUTION BY DIMENSION
Momentum +buzz / form right now
Respect +impressed in the lead-up
Pressure −least trusted under pressure
Bias −most overrated by the public
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Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. Our signals are not to be considered financial advice.
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