Poll closedTournament-wide
Which continent will win the World Cup?
What the verified crowd expressed across four sentiment dimensions — momentum, respect, pressure and bias. 756 World ID voters · poll closed.
Voters756World ID, complete ballots
Crowd's pickEuropenet +24 · 69% of the read
Poll closed11 Junvotes captured at close
⚡ The alpha windowPolling closed · event not yet resolved
Where the verified crowd diverges from the betting market — right now, before the event resolves.
Biggest gap: Europe — the crowd is -4 ppt below the market price (73%).
EntityMarketCrowdGap
Europe73%69%-4
Oceania0%3%+3
South America22%20%-2
Africa3%4%+1
Asia3%3%0
North America2%2%0
Gap = the crowd's read minus the market's implied price, in percentage points. The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is a sentiment signal, not a prediction or financial advice.
The crowd's story
Crowd backs Europe, but pressure and bias temper the belief
Europe leads on momentum and respect yet carries the field's highest doubt scores, while South America sits a distant second and every other continent reads net negative.
THE CROWD'S COMBINED READ
A blend of the four sentiment dimensions below — the crowd's overall lean, from their votes only.
HOW THE CROWD CALLED IT — BY DIMENSION
One bar per entity — the mix of the crowd's read across the four dimensions. Green and blue (Momentum, Respect) are belief; amber and magenta (Pressure, Bias) are doubt. The more an entity's bar leans green/blue, the higher its net.
Momentum +Respect +Pressure −Bias −
Each segment is that dimension's share of the entity's four-dimension total. Exact per-dimension vote counts are in “Distribution by dimension” below. Dimension leaders — Momentum: Europe · Respect: Europe · Pressure: Europe · Bias: Europe
DISTRIBUTION BY DIMENSION
Momentum +buzz / form right now
Respect +impressed in the lead-up
Pressure −least trusted under pressure
Bias −most overrated by the public
MORE TOURNAMENT-WIDE CALLS
Outright⚡ Alpha window
World Cup: Golden Boot Winner
The crowd most backs Kylian Mbappe — 27% of the combined read.
See the crowd calls →
Outright⚡ Alpha window
World Cup Group E Winner
The crowd most backs Germany — 97% of the combined read.
See the crowd calls →
Outright⚡ Alpha window
World Cup: Nation of Top Goalscorer
The crowd most backs France — 38% of the combined read.
See the crowd calls →
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. Our signals are not to be considered financial advice.
Get the calls worth watching