ResolvedTournament-wide

Which continent will win the World Cup?

What the verified crowd expressed across four sentiment dimensions — momentum, respect, pressure and bias. 756 World ID voters · resolved.

Voters756World ID, complete ballots
Crowd's pickEuropenet +24 · 69% of the read
Poll closed11 Junvotes captured at close
Resolved19 Julthe event was played
The result
Crowd
Europe
Crowd
Europe · 69%
Market
Europe · 73%
Shown for context. This page reports what the crowd expressed before the event — not a scorecard.
Crowd vs market
How the crowd’s read compared to the betting market.
Biggest gap: Europe — the crowd is -4 ppt below the market price (73%).
EntityMarketCrowdGap
Europe73%69%-4
Oceania0%3%+3
South America22%20%-2
Africa3%4%+1
Asia3%3%0
North America2%2%0
Gap = the crowd's read minus the market's implied price, in percentage points. The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
The crowd's story
Crowd backs Europe with dominant momentum, but bias and pressure temper the belief
Strong momentum and respect lifted Europe to a clear lead in the swarm read, though notable bias and pressure scores kept the conviction from being clean. Europe did win.
THE CROWD'S COMBINED READ
Europe69%
South America20%
Africa4%
Asia3%
Oceania3%
North America2%
A blend of the four sentiment dimensions below — the crowd's overall lean, from their votes only.
HOW THE CROWD CALLED IT — BY DIMENSION

One bar per entity — the mix of the crowd's read across the four dimensions. Green and blue (Momentum, Respect) are belief; amber and magenta (Pressure, Bias) are doubt. The more an entity's bar leans green/blue, the higher its net.

Momentum +Respect +Pressure Bias
Europe+24
South America+11
Africa-5
Asia-7
Oceania-9
North America-14
Each segment is that dimension's share of the entity's four-dimension total. Exact per-dimension vote counts are in “Distribution by dimension” below. Dimension leaders — Momentum: Europe · Respect: Europe · Pressure: Europe · Bias: Europe
DISTRIBUTION BY DIMENSION
Momentum +buzz / form right now
Europe53%402 votes
South America24%179 votes
Asia9%69 votes
Africa7%50 votes
North America6%42 votes
Oceania2%14 votes
Respect +impressed in the lead-up
Europe40%306 votes
South America23%176 votes
Asia15%113 votes
Africa10%76 votes
North America7%53 votes
Oceania4%32 votes
Pressure least trusted under pressure
Europe30%228 votes
Asia18%134 votes
South America15%117 votes
Africa14%106 votes
North America12%93 votes
Oceania10%78 votes
Bias most overrated by the public
Europe40%302 votes
South America20%153 votes
North America15%110 votes
Asia13%102 votes
Africa7%55 votes
Oceania4%34 votes
MORE TOURNAMENT-WIDE CALLS