ResolvedTournament-wide

World Cup: Golden Boot Winner

What the verified crowd expressed across four sentiment dimensions — momentum, respect, pressure and bias. 678 World ID voters · resolved.

Voters678World ID, complete ballots
Crowd's pickKylian Mbappenet +13 · 27% of the read
Poll closed11 Junvotes captured at close
Resolved19 Julthe event was played
The result
Crowd
Kylian Mbappe
Crowd
Kylian Mbappe · 27%
Market
Kylian Mbappe · 16%
Shown for context. This page reports what the crowd expressed before the event — not a scorecard.
Crowd vs market
How the crowd’s read compared to the betting market.
Biggest gap: Lionel Messi — the crowd is +12 ppt above the market price (7%).
EntityMarketCrowdGap
Lionel Messi7%19%+12
Kylian Mbappe16%27%+11
Other0%6%+6
Harry Kane14%9%-5
Mikel Oyarzabal10%5%-5
Julian Alvarez5%8%+3
Erling Haaland8%9%+1
Cristiano Ronaldo5%4%-1
Raphinha3%4%+1
Lamine Yamal7%6%-1
Vinicius Junior3%4%+1
Gap = the crowd's read minus the market's implied price, in percentage points. The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
The crowd's story
Crowd backs Mbappe for Golden Boot, momentum leads but pressure stays low
Mbappe drew the field's strongest momentum and cleanest sentiment shape, while Messi carried high respect undercut by the crowd's heaviest bias load. Mbappe did win the Golden Boot.
THE CROWD'S COMBINED READ
Kylian Mbappe27%
Lionel Messi19%
Harry Kane9%
Erling Haaland9%
Julian Alvarez8%
Lamine Yamal6%
Other6%
Mikel Oyarzabal5%
Raphinha4%
Cristiano Ronaldo4%
Vinicius Junior4%
A blend of the four sentiment dimensions below — the crowd's overall lean, from their votes only.
HOW THE CROWD CALLED IT — BY DIMENSION

One bar per entity — the mix of the crowd's read across the four dimensions. Green and blue (Momentum, Respect) are belief; amber and magenta (Pressure, Bias) are doubt. The more an entity's bar leans green/blue, the higher its net.

Momentum +Respect +Pressure Bias
Kylian Mbappe+13
Lionel Messi+9
Harry Kane+2
Erling Haaland+2
Julian Alvarez+1
Lamine Yamal-2
Mikel Oyarzabal-3
Other-3
Raphinha-5
Cristiano Ronaldo-7
Vinicius Junior-7
Each segment is that dimension's share of the entity's four-dimension total. Exact per-dimension vote counts are in “Distribution by dimension” below. Dimension leaders — Momentum: Kylian Mbappe · Respect: Lionel Messi · Pressure: Cristiano Ronaldo · Bias: Cristiano Ronaldo
DISTRIBUTION BY DIMENSION
Momentum +buzz / form right now
Kylian Mbappe23%155 votes
Lionel Messi21%140 votes
Cristiano Ronaldo19%130 votes
Harry Kane9%59 votes
Erling Haaland6%38 votes
Julian Alvarez5%33 votes
Lamine Yamal5%32 votes
Other5%37 votes
Mikel Oyarzabal4%26 votes
Vinicius Junior3%22 votes
Raphinha1%6 votes
Respect +impressed in the lead-up
Lionel Messi23%153 votes
Cristiano Ronaldo21%142 votes
Kylian Mbappe11%77 votes
Lamine Yamal10%70 votes
Erling Haaland9%59 votes
Harry Kane6%41 votes
Julian Alvarez5%34 votes
Vinicius Junior5%33 votes
Raphinha4%27 votes
Mikel Oyarzabal3%23 votes
Other3%19 votes
Pressure least trusted under pressure
Cristiano Ronaldo21%142 votes
Lionel Messi15%100 votes
Kylian Mbappe11%74 votes
Lamine Yamal8%55 votes
Vinicius Junior8%52 votes
Other8%51 votes
Mikel Oyarzabal7%50 votes
Harry Kane6%41 votes
Erling Haaland6%39 votes
Raphinha6%42 votes
Julian Alvarez5%32 votes
Bias most overrated by the public
Cristiano Ronaldo26%177 votes
Lionel Messi19%130 votes
Kylian Mbappe10%70 votes
Lamine Yamal9%62 votes
Vinicius Junior7%49 votes
Harry Kane6%44 votes
Erling Haaland6%43 votes
Julian Alvarez5%31 votes
Raphinha4%28 votes
Other4%24 votes
Mikel Oyarzabal3%20 votes
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