Poll closedTournament-wide
World Cup: Golden Boot Winner
What the verified crowd expressed across four sentiment dimensions — momentum, respect, pressure and bias. 678 World ID voters · poll closed.
Voters678World ID, complete ballots
Crowd's pickKylian Mbappenet +13 · 27% of the read
Poll closed11 Junvotes captured at close
⚡ The alpha windowPolling closed · event not yet resolved
Where the verified crowd diverges from the betting market — right now, before the event resolves.
Biggest gap: Lionel Messi — the crowd is +12 ppt above the market price (7%).
EntityMarketCrowdGap
Lionel Messi7%19%+12
Kylian Mbappe16%27%+11
Other0%6%+6
Harry Kane14%9%-5
Mikel Oyarzabal10%5%-5
Julian Alvarez5%8%+3
Erling Haaland8%9%+1
Cristiano Ronaldo5%4%-1
Raphinha3%4%+1
Lamine Yamal7%6%-1
Vinicius Junior3%4%+1
Gap = the crowd's read minus the market's implied price, in percentage points. The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is a sentiment signal, not a prediction or financial advice.
The crowd's story
Crowd backs Mbappé for Golden Boot — momentum leads, doubt trails Ronaldo
Mbappé tops the combined read on strong momentum and contained doubt, while Messi carries high respect but also the heaviest pressure-bias drag of any serious contender.
THE CROWD'S COMBINED READ
A blend of the four sentiment dimensions below — the crowd's overall lean, from their votes only.
HOW THE CROWD CALLED IT — BY DIMENSION
One bar per entity — the mix of the crowd's read across the four dimensions. Green and blue (Momentum, Respect) are belief; amber and magenta (Pressure, Bias) are doubt. The more an entity's bar leans green/blue, the higher its net.
Momentum +Respect +Pressure −Bias −
Each segment is that dimension's share of the entity's four-dimension total. Exact per-dimension vote counts are in “Distribution by dimension” below. Dimension leaders — Momentum: Kylian Mbappe · Respect: Lionel Messi · Pressure: Cristiano Ronaldo · Bias: Cristiano Ronaldo
DISTRIBUTION BY DIMENSION
Momentum +buzz / form right now
Respect +impressed in the lead-up
Pressure −least trusted under pressure
Bias −most overrated by the public
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Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. Our signals are not to be considered financial advice.
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