Soccer.

Liverpool beat Atlético Madrid 2-1.

Crowd called 2 of 3 legs; market called 3.

Crowd well above market on both teams scoring, and that gap was the defining divergence of this poll.

Arsenal beat Napoli 1-0.

Crowd called 1 of 3 legs; market called 2.

Crowd sat 18 points above the market on Arsenal, and that read aligned with the result.

Sporting CP beat Galatasaray 3-1.

Crowd called 2 of 3 legs; market called 3.

Crowd ran well above market on Under 2.5 goals, a lean the final score did not support.

Barcelona beat Feyenoord 5-1.

Crowd called 2 of 3 legs; market called 3.

Crowd meaningfully cooler on Over 2.5 goals than the market. That cautious lean met an outcome that went the other way.

+35pt gap on elche vs real sociedad: how does it end.

Crowd 75%, Market 40%.

Crowd sits far above market on Real Sociedad win. The standout divergence in this poll.

+25pt gap on udinese vs lazio: how does it end.

Crowd 62%, Market 37%.

Crowd sits well above market on Lazio, the widest gap in the poll.

+24pt gap on getafe vs celta vigo: how does it end.

Crowd 52%, Market 28%.

Crowd leans heavily to Celta Vigo, well above a market that prices them last.

0pt gap on cagliari vs lecce: how does it end.

Crowd 49%, Market 49%.

Crowd overweights Lecce, underweights the draw. The market and crowd split sharply on both.

Espanyol and Sevilla drew 1-1.

Crowd and market both called 0 of 1 legs.

Crowd piled into Sevilla win, 25 points above market, but the draw nobody favoured arrived instead.

Juventus and AC Milan drew 1-1.

Crowd and market both called 0 of 1 legs.

Crowd underweights the draw sharply vs the market, and the draw is exactly what landed.

Schalke 04 and Bayern Munich drew 0-0.

Crowd and market both called 0 of 1 legs.

No crowd-vs-market gap to speak of: Schalke and Tie splits are the only mild wrinkles, with Tie landing as the actual.

Inter Milan beat Napoli 3-2.

Crowd and market both called 1 of 1 legs.

Crowd ran hard above market on Napoli, hard below on Tie, and the Tie is what landed.

Athletic Bilbao beat Atlético Madrid 3-0.

Crowd and market both called 0 of 1 legs.

Crowd piled on Atlético Madrid at more than double the market weight. The Tie landed instead.

AS Monaco FC beat Paris Saint-Germain FC 2-1.

Crowd and market both called 0 of 1 legs.

Crowd ran Monaco at nearly twice the market price, a wide gap that met the actual result.

Real Betis beat Real Madrid 1-0.

Crowd and market both called 0 of 1 legs.

Crowd pushed Real Madrid well above market price, but Real Betis delivered the upset both sides underweighted.

Como beat Genoa 4-1.

Crowd called 0 of 1 legs; market called 1.

Crowd ran hard on Genoa; market disagreed sharply, and the result sided with the market.

Lyon beat Auxerre 3-1.

Crowd and market both called 1 of 1 legs.

Crowd ran above market on Lyon, well below on Tie. Both gaps pointed the same way as the outcome.

Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo drew 0-0.

Crowd and market both called 0 of 1 legs.

Crowd ran well above market on Real Sociedad win, leaving the Tie sharply underweighted. The draw landed.

Lille OSC beat Toulouse 1-0.

Crowd and market both called 1 of 1 legs.

Crowd crushed the draw vs market, splitting that weight between both teams to win.

Heart of Midlothian beat Hibernian 3-1.

Crowd and market both called 1 of 1 legs.

Crowd above market on Hearts, below on the Tie, in a tightly contested three-way split.