Rennes beat Marseille 1-0.
Crowd called 0 of 3 legs; market called 1.
Crowd on Marseille: more than double the market price, and the result went the other way.
Fiorentina beat Venezia 4-2.
Crowd called 2 of 3 legs; market called 3.
Crowd ran well above the market on Fiorentina, a gap that aligned with the result.
Como beat RB Leipzig 4-1.
Crowd called 2 of 3 legs; market called 3.
Crowd fades the Over hard on goals, well above market on Under, a read the result did not support.
Bayern Munich beat Bodø/Glimt 5-0.
Crowd called 1 of 3 legs; market called 2.
Crowd well below market on Over 2.5 goals, the widest gap on the board. That leg aligned with the result.
Manchester United beat Sabah Baku 4-0.
Crowd called 1 of 3 legs; market called 3.
Crowd meaningfully cooler than the market on Over 2.5 goals. The clearest divergence on the board.
PSV Eindhoven and Shakhtar Donetsk drew 1-1.
Crowd and market both called 1 of 3 legs.
Crowd ran well above market on Under 2.5 goals, and the low-scoring finish bore that read out.
Fenerbahçe and Roma drew 1-1.
Crowd and market both called 1 of 3 legs.
Crowd leaned hard into Roma over the market price, a gap that the draw left unresolved.
Liverpool beat Atlético Madrid 2-1.
Crowd called 2 of 3 legs; market called 3.
Crowd well above market on both teams scoring, and that gap was the defining divergence of this poll.
Arsenal beat Napoli 1-0.
Crowd called 1 of 3 legs; market called 2.
Crowd sat 18 points above the market on Arsenal, and that read aligned with the result.
Sporting CP beat Galatasaray 3-1.
Crowd called 2 of 3 legs; market called 3.
Crowd ran well above market on Under 2.5 goals, a lean the final score did not support.
Barcelona beat Feyenoord 5-1.
Crowd called 2 of 3 legs; market called 3.
Crowd meaningfully cooler on Over 2.5 goals than the market. That cautious lean met an outcome that went the other way.
Real Sociedad beat Elche 3-2.
Crowd and market both called 1 of 1 legs.
Crowd sits far above market on Real Sociedad win. The standout divergence in this poll.
Lazio beat Udinese 2-1.
Crowd and market both called 1 of 1 legs.
Crowd sits well above market on Lazio, the widest gap in the poll.
Getafe and Celta Vigo drew 1-1.
Crowd and market both called 0 of 1 legs.
Crowd leans heavily to Celta Vigo, well above a market that prices them last.
Cagliari beat Lecce 1-0.
Crowd and market both called 1 of 1 legs.
Crowd overweights Lecce, underweights the draw. The market and crowd split sharply on both.
Espanyol and Sevilla drew 1-1.
Crowd and market both called 0 of 1 legs.
Crowd piled into Sevilla win, 25 points above market, but the draw nobody favoured arrived instead.
Juventus and AC Milan drew 1-1.
Crowd and market both called 0 of 1 legs.
Crowd underweights the draw sharply vs the market, and the draw is exactly what landed.
Schalke 04 and Bayern Munich drew 0-0.
Crowd and market both called 0 of 1 legs.
No crowd-vs-market gap to speak of: Schalke and Tie splits are the only mild wrinkles, with Tie landing as the actual.
Inter Milan beat Napoli 3-2.
Crowd and market both called 1 of 1 legs.
Crowd ran hard above market on Napoli, hard below on Tie, and the Tie is what landed.
Athletic Bilbao beat Atlético Madrid 3-0.
Crowd and market both called 0 of 1 legs.
Crowd piled on Atlético Madrid at more than double the market weight. The Tie landed instead.